XinDa oil futures market outlook supply tight bargain buying tda7294

XinDa: oil futures market outlook supply tight bargain buy clients view the latest market operation strategy: long P1701 admission interval: 5100-5400 stop location: near 4900; only the profit position: 6000-6500; holding time: 2-3 months strategy logic: international oil supply tense 01 9-12 month contract basis is too large, the reaction is expected to yield even palm oil; associated with the international oil price is high to bean oil. Risk factors: the brown horse production chain sharply for two consecutive months is higher than the average of two times the expected crude oil prices fell sharply to $35 below the United States; raw wood producers give up complete index. Attention: ITS index and SGS export data; palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, the cost of imported crude oil prices and the ICE price; the price of diesel oil stocks; NOPA, production and consumption; South American soybean oil exports agio. Main point: in the next one to February, the international soybean oil and palm oil are a major importer of replenishment needs and biological diesel manufacturing supply causes volume growth will tend to be nervous, but even the palm 01 contract premium of up to 600-700 yuan, a record high, and deviate from the tight supply of expectations. We think there is room to rise late palm oil spot and futures, because the relationship between the basis the rise will be greater than the spot, so we recommend buying a P1701 contract. A 9-12 month, the international oil supply tense 1, U.S. oil Figure 1 American bio diesel production (dashed as expected) source: NOPA, figure 2 American soybean oil futures XinDa monthly consumption (ton) source: wind consumption, oil futures XinDa each year about 14 for bio diesel consumption, the rest used as edible oil and food processing, food consumption remained at about 2% of the growth in recent years, production and consumption of soybean oil major growth power sources and biological diesel oil. By the end of 2015 the United States to develop a 2016 production capacity of 1 billion 900 million gallons of diesel. According to the actual consumption of about 1 billion 250 million gallons in 2013 and in 2014, compared with the index, the actual consumption of about a total of about 400 million gallons, so this year’s consumption will reach about 1 billion 500 million gallons. As can be seen from Figure 1, although the first half of the consumption is higher than in previous years, but still did not reach the level of completion of 1 billion 500 million gallons. So in the second half of the year, it is expected that the United States will need to increase production capacity to complete the index, and use more soybean oil. In fact, it can be seen from the soybean oil consumption in Figure 27, soybean oil consumption has begun to increase, the corresponding soybean stocks began to decrease. The growth of oil consumption of the main exporter of soybean oil and soybean oil, Brazil Argentina premium rose sharply. In July this year, Argentina October CNF premium from -20 increased to 160, while Brazil increased from 30 to 190, high.相关的主题文章: