CITIC Construction real estate has been approaching the limit of the next three years or down cosmax

CITIC Building: real estate has been approaching the limit of the next three years or down CITIC Construction chief economist Zhou Jintao believes that China’s real estate may be approaching the upper limit. China’s real estate cycle in 2014 and may be formed in the top of the double head in the next three years, or into the downstream period of. Digestion of real estate inventory, promote the sustainable development of the real estate industry as a pillar of the real estate industry once again confirmed, to eliminate the constraints of supply side reform through urbanization. The current round of the cycle has not yet bottomed out China Securities Journal: after you predicted that China’s economy in the first half of third inventory cycle bottoming. Judging from the economic data, this judgment is more accurate. The bottom of the economy is the largest contribution to the real estate market. How to look at the role of the real estate market in this round of inventory cycle adjustment? Zhou Jintao: China’s economy is currently in the middle of the cycle down stage, which determines the high point of investment has passed, while the current cycle has not yet bottomed out, the future trend is likely to run down the rate. From the inventory cycle, we believe that the third inventory cycle of the economy this year is mainly due to the weak recovery in the second half of the opening period, to provide the expected support and the real estate price for the third inventory cycle start a partial recovery. But we believe that the third inventory cycle is more from the cycle of commodity prices in the repair of the law. China Securities Journal: in the current asset shortage pattern, the real estate market is unusually hot. Do you think what kind of factors causing this situation? Zhou Jintao: from the beginning of 2016, in addition to the financial sector "asset shortage", the real economy investment in fixed assets is also declining, indicating that the economy is running to adjust the phase, decrease the rate of return on investment is irreversible. From 2017 to 2019, in the global cycle is decreased, so it is not only China, inevitable cycle. But this time the economy especially the financial system exists within a large number of excess liquidity, the excess liquidity at this stage of the inevitable investment orientation is off the virtual reality, which can resist for devaluation of assets, so it is not only real estate, such as the price of gold rose, commodity prices rebound, are this off the virtual reality show. But this is the precursor of the economic cycle is about to enter recession. According to our understanding of the real estate cycle wave Kang motion, the major economies in the United States as the representative of the Chinese and facing the real estate cycle adjustment is a high level, and is inevitable. So recognize the performance of the asset price represented by the logic and its cycle stage, is the premise of any investment. Real estate cycle or into the downstream China Securities Journal: there is no only rising prices, the real estate market bubble warning. China’s real estate cycle from the point of view, the uplink phase time is relatively long, the future will be how to interpret? Zhou Jintao: from the angle of Kang wave period, the real estate cycle length is about 25-30 years, the United States since 1995 to open a new round of real estate cycle, has gone through 21 years, which has substantial peaked in 2006. According to experience, the end of this round of real estate cycle is likely to reach 2020-2025 years. So for 20.相关的主题文章: